So, I did more digging through the vaccine datasets from the state. First, let me say how much I love that they put these out here – they’re broken down to locality & health district, vaccine manufacturer, *and* the number of first & second doses.
In my county, the first second dose was administered on 1/2. Since then, we’ve gotten 89K fully vaccinated. That is definitely not nothing, but it’s also only 10% of our over-18 population. (I really thought we’d sped things up more.)
The county waitlist that was 105K yesterday is 107K today.
We’re getting an average of 1,392 a day to a fully vaccinated status. At that rate, we’ll get through the waitlist by nearly the end of May.
If we can’t increase the vax rate, we don’t hit herd immunity until 2022. (70-95% of the over 18s will take until between March to August of next year at the current rate.)
Our cases *are* dropping in the county – we’re back to early November numbers with a 7 day average of 160 cases a day. (Our peak was a 7 day average of 696 cases a day on 1/17.) So, that looks good.
But – our testing is dropping, too – we’ve never had true full bore surveillance testing here – they’ve gone into some nursing homes and very specific communities, but on the whole, testing has been self-selecting – and that’s how you end up with the mess of massive asymptomatic transmission.
The county is talking up the fact that a) our vax supply should be increasing significantly soon, and they expect J&J vaccines over the next few months, so that’s good, too, cause we need to get more shots in arms to be sure.
But, I’m thinking the J&J vax is going to be a harder sell – public health officials seems to be mainly focused on keeping people out of hospitals (which I totally get – that *is* really important) – but not so much on “how sick can you still get and are we still looking at more long haul cases.” I know the potential for being a long hauler scares the shit out of me. (I’m still pissed at how last year they kept saying, “Oh, the vast majority of cases are “mild” and it took forever for them to admit that mild = no hospitalization, but can still put you flat on your back for two weeks and have unending consequences.)
For people who are very concerned with not getting sick at all, J&J’s efficacy of 70-85% (depending on which article you read) vs. Moderna & Pfizers 90+% efficacy – well, you can tell people “take whatever vaccine you can get” until you’re blue in the face – but people are going to make decisions based on those numbers, because it’s more than just staying out of the hospital.
Musings of a marginally sane feline-appreciating female. 
I’m definitely planning on getting the Pfizer, or possibly the Moderna, but not the J&J. In addition to your reasons, I also feel like 1) I have the free time and easy transportation to get two shots, and 2) even if I had a reaction to the first one, I know with certainty that I’ll get the second. I’d rather leave the J&J for people who have busy lives and/or have shot anxiety.
My big worry now is whether Millennials and Gen-Z actually show up for the vaccine. I think basically all of my “Old Millennial” friends are planning on getting it, but as you go younger, especially once you’re below 30, you have so many people who were raised by anti-vaxxer and vaccine-hesitant parents that they don’t seem enthusiastic. The early polling I’ve seen hasn’t been good. I’m worried about that hampering our efforts and making this all take even longer.
The only family I have in-state are two of my sisters and my “new” uncle. One of the sisters has declared that her whole household will not be getting the shot — she was big on sharing that “Plandemic” video — and I can tell she’s already feeling left out of discussions where the three vaccinated households are talking about getting together this summer for a socially-distant outdoors BBQ. I’m hoping that society puts enough pressure on families like hers that they’ll eventually cave and get it just so they can be included in society. Sounds mean, but…
Hey, for once, peer pressure can be a GOOD thing! it’s not mean at all, folks who insist on putting others at risk shouldn’t get to be included in the fun stuff. I know I’m not really in the mood to reward anti-vaxxers with anything nice at the moment.
I’m glad I’m not the only one slightly, “Ehhhh” about the J&J shot. I feel like such a damn vaccine snob (who knew THAT would ever be a thing?) And like you, a 2 shot course is a non-issue for me – I can take time off to get it and the day after if I feel like crud without a problem.
All the youngsters I know are in the restaurant industry and very INJECT IT INTO MY VEINS! Maybe we’ll see some more peer pressure in those age groups that will get their friends on board.